Stretched sentiment shrinking liquidity

Indian Equities have been recepient of both local ( MF inflows) and global ETF liquidity.India dedicated ETF have been one of the largest recepient of this liquidity( refer to the chart).  Global liquidity has been deteriorating for last 1 month and if MF inflows continue unabated then we might see markets atleast stalling and catching its breath for some time .

Variant Perceptions writes that “Liquidity conditions have deteriorated meaningfully for EM equities. The left chart below shows that the steep drop in G7 Excess Liquidity points to a risk of much lower EM equity prices in about 3-4 months’ time.This materially worse backdrop for EM equities is happening just when investors are piling into EM assets. If we look at the chart on the right, we can see that EM bonds and equities are seeing the largest ETF inflows over the last three months. Although, we are selectively positive on some specific EM markets (such as Malaysia), overall we believe investors should rotate away from broad EM equities exposure”.



Ritesh Jain

One Comment

  1. I checked out the link. Same blog predicted similar bearish view on emerging markets in 2014 second half. Indian equities rallied to hit new highs by early ’15.

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