The Big Picture
Big picture, the near term looks good and the longer term looks scary. That is because:
The economy is now at or near its best, and we see no major economic risks on the horizon for the next year or two,
There are significant long-term problems (e.g., high debt and non-debt obligations, limited abilities by central banks to stimulate, etc.) that are likely to create a squeeze,Social and political conflicts are near their worst for the last number of decades, and Conflicts get worse when economies worsen.
So while we have no near-term economic worries for the economy as a whole, we worry about what these conflicts will become like when the economy has its next downturn.
The next few pages go through our picture of the world as a whole, followed by a look at each of the major economies. We recommend that you read the first part on the world picture and look at the others on individual countries if you’re so inclined.Read More...