The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a global business cycle. This is reflecting a shift in global capital flows from Asia and Europe to North America.
The Fed has raised rates twice this year and is expected to raise rates a couple more times by year end which may attract more foreign capital into the U.S. dollar with monetary policy remaining loose to very insane in Europe and Japan. We have the ECM, which has destroyed the European bond market, frozen like a deal in headlights. It is trapped and it realizes that it has been buying the debt of member states who are now addicted to excessively low-interest rates. If the ECB actually stops buying, interest rates in Europe will explode exponentially.
In Japan, BOJ has wiped out the bond market. The government actually bragged that they bought 97% of the government debt auction. Hellow? That’s a good thing? The Bank of Japan has reduced debt purchases for a third time in June 2018, taking advantage of the recent stability in bond yields and the yen. At least Japan is reducing its purchases whereas the ECB talks a good game, but cannot actually do anything.
So what will happen when some of this capital starts moving to the world largest economy
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