The oil price collapse is a bad omen for much worse things to follow. The global contagion is impacting the U.S. economy and the domestic oil industry far greater than I realized just two weeks ago. As I try to allow my analysis to “Catch Up” to the gravity of the situation, my new forecast of the U.S. economy and oil industry is quite dire indeed.
I don’t say this to panic anyone, but to provide a more “realistic and pragmatic” view of where we go from here over the next few weeks and months. The rapid collapse in the U.S. oil price suggests BIG TROUBLE ahead for the domestic shale oil industry. While the low oil price is causing havoc in the shale industry, it’s only one component of the overall equation.
Today, oil consumption in the United States has already declined significantly due to the lockdown of many cities and areas in the country. However, this is just the first stage of the crisis. My gut tells me that U.S. oil consumption is likely down 25-30% already… maybe more. But, as state and federal governments continue to lockdown additional cities, we may see upwards of 40-50% drop-off in oil consumption. It sounds outlandish, but we have to start considering the FACTS.
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