One of the most watched recession indicator has just turned yellow. The US yield curve has become flat and possibly could invert in coming months if FED continues to tighten the policy.I have always found Bond market signal more rational than equity markets.
US 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield…
Jun ’09: 2.43%
Jun ’10: 2.47%
Jun ’11: 2.54%
Jun ’12: 1.32%
Jun ’13: 2.17%
Jun ’14: 2.09%
Jun ’15: 1.72%
Jun ’16: 0.93%
Jun’ 17: 0.81%
Today: 0.33% (flattest since Aug 2007)
