Stock Market suffers bout of bad breath

Some great charts from The daily prophet about market action.

How small caps are now underperforming largecaps

Treasuries are rallying inspite of FED raising rates. US 30 year yield broke below 3% yesterday .. first time in last 1 month and bank index BKK broke down , after all flattening yield curve is not good for banks. Without banks participating in the Trump rally there can be no REFLATION

For those who have given up on excitement from china ,PBOC added lot of interbank liquidity in last few days as apparently some banks defaulted in interbank markets.

I mean WOW banks defaulting in interbank markets????

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-22/the-daily-prophet-stock-market-suffers-bout-of-bad-breadth-j0lfaznu

Peer into Post-Apocalyptic Future of Antimicrobial Resistance

ABOUT 4 MILLION years ago, a cave was forming in the Delaware Basin of what is now Carlsbad Caverns National Park in New Mexico. From that time on, Lechuguilla Cave remained untouched by humans or animals until its discovery in 1986—an isolated, pristine primeval ecosystem.

When the bacteria found on the walls of Lechuguilla were analyzed, many of the microbes were determined not only to have resistance to natural antibiotics like penicillin, but also to synthetic antibiotics that did not exist on earth until the second half of the twentieth century. As infectious disease specialist Brad Spellberg put it in the New England Journal of Medicine, “These results underscore a critical reality: antibiotic resistance already exists, widely disseminated in nature, to drugs we have not yet invented.”

Read more

https://www.wired.com/2017/03/peer-post-apocalyptic-future-antimicrobial-resistance/?mbid=nl_31817_p2&CNDID=31755630

Shale has endangered a structural deflationary cycle

Let me start by stating the obvious ” inflation is good for equities and deflation is bad for equities“. Historically rising oil prices are good for equities.

1. Higher oil prices lead to lower dollar and more money in the hand of oil producers which  in turn gets recycled into US treasuries leading to lower US bond yields and rising consumer indebtedness (70% of US economy is consumer),or on spending on their population to suppress civil unrest or to buy assets abroad.

2. Higher oil prices lead to rising budget deficits and rising inflation for oil consuming countries. Rising deficits and rising inflation leads to investors buying assets (real estate,equities) to maintain the value of the money

This cycle has continued with some pauses from the time oil has started getting priced in US dollar and this whole arrangement is known as “PETRO DOLLAR”

what if this cycle is coming to an end?

The above is a graph of shale gas curve and US is a big shale producer. The current price of shale production curve is less than the current price of oil. Last week G-20 meeting was historic in that sense where US decided to withdraw from the world stage by touting America first policy. Without Big brother and its current account deficit world has lost an anchor for Petro Dollar and current monetary system.

 

Sales growth and Prices bounces back post demonetisation

The Indian Sales Managers Index (SMI) for March, shows that the Indian economy is in recovery mode from December’s demonetisation policy. The abrupt impact of demonetisation hit small and medium size businesses hard as they predominately rely on cash based transactions. The March Headline SMI increased to an index level of 62.9 from 60.2 in unadjusted terms. Sales growth, as reported by the unadjusted Sales Growth Index, has improved from 57.3 in February to 61.9 in March and coupled with a strong uptick in the Business Confidence Index suggests that the demonetisation impact has started to wear off.

sales growth Index

Prices paid Index………see how prices are boucing back

Dr Viral acharys was quoted in MINT “I think everyone should keep in mind that the remonetisation is taking place at a very fast pace. We have some way to go, but I think we expect that within two to three months we will reach full currency in circulation. It will be slightly lower, but it is in that ballpark (number),” he said.

I think if full currency with public gets normalised as Dr Viral Acharya expects over next couple of months, RBI will have a problem at its hand of rising inflationary pressures in an economy where only one engine of economy i.e consumption is doing well.

Digital transactions recede,no happy outcomes of remonetisation

The value of digital transactions are declining as currency with public gathers pace. Dr Viral acharys was quoted in MINT  “I think everyone should keep in mind that the remonetisation is taking place at a very fast pace. We have some way to go, but I think we expect that within two to three months we will reach full currency in circulation. It will be slightly lower, but it is in that ballpark (number),” he said.

If this entire money is remonetised and goes back into vault then it will be a lost opportunity of a kind of one time dividend which govt would have got (if not immediately) helping govt finances or better for spending on development for society

If this money is used for consumption rather than hoarded then it will create headache for RBI in the form of rising inflationary pressures.

Either ways not a happy outcome

 

Credit growth dips again but bond market comes to rescue

One of the big mysteries in the Indian economy currently is the persistently low credit growth, which fell further after the government’s demonetisation drive in November.
After struggling along at just under 10 percent for almost a year, credit growth fell to under 5 percent starting November, according to fortnightly data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) the value of loans in India increased 4.1 percent year-on-year in the two weeks to March 3rd 2017. Loan Growth in India averaged 12.41 percent from 2012 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 18.70 percent in April of 2012 and a record low of 4.10 percent in March of 2017.

According to Nomura true credit growth is closer to 7 percent. That’s not to say that it isn’t weak. Just not as weak as what the bank credit data suggests.
RBI credit data (3.7 percent year-on-year growth in January ’17) does not capture the impact of bond substitution and State Electricity Board (SEB) loan conversions. The corporate bond book has been growing at 16-18 percent year-on-year for the past 12 months, and Rs 1.7 lakh crore of SEB loans have been converted into bonds under UDAY scheme over the past 6-7 months. Adding this up, they estimate that overall credit growth is 6.7 percent year on year and industry and services credit growth is 5.6 percent year on year (1 percent contraction as per RBI).
While saying that growth in bank loans may be understating the actual demand for credit in the economy, Nomura goes on to say that there are fundamental reasons for subdued credit demand. This includes the deleveraging of corporate balance sheets.
Three sectors – infrastructure, metals and textiles – contributed 30-25 percent of total incremental credit in the financial year (FY) 2007-08 to FY14 period, when bank credit was growing at 17 percent year on year. Adjusting for these sectors, credit growth was closer to 12-13 percent. Credit demand from these sectors (excluding SEBs) is now down to zero, which is bound to impact overall demand for loans.Ambit Capital  points out that banks have lost nearly 5 percent points in market share to bond markets over the past two years. This was partly because of the rate advantage in the markets and this shift from bank loans to bond market will only acclerate thereby pressurising the Net Interest Margin of banking system.

 

 

 

The world in 2050 by PWC

This report by PWC outlines the shift in global gdp from G-7 to E-7. Lot of data and charts

Key findings
1. We project that the world economy could more than double in size by 2050, assuming broadly growthfriendly policies (including no sustained long-term retreat into protectionism) and no major global civilisation-threatening catastrophes.
2. Emerging markets will continue to be the growth engine of the global economy. By 2050, the E7 economies could have increased their share of world GDP from around 35% to almost 50%. China could be the largest economy in the world, accounting for around 20% of world GDP in 2050, with India in second place and Indonesia in fourth place (based on GDP at PPPs).


3. A number of other emerging markets will also take centre stage – Mexico could be larger than the UK and Germany by 2050 in PPP terms and six of the seven largest economies in the world could be emerging markets by that time.
4. Meanwhile, the EU27 share of world GDP could be down to less than 10% by 2050, smaller than India.
5. We project Vietnam, India and Bangladesh to be three of the world’s fastest growing economies over this period. UK growth has the potential to outpace the average rate in the EU27 after the transitional impact of Brexit has passed, although we project the fastest growing large EU economy to be Poland.
6. Today’s advanced economies will continue to have higher average incomes, but emerging economies should make good progress towards closing this gap by 2050. This will open up great opportunities for businesses prepared to make long-term investments in these markets. But this will require patience to ride out the storms we have seen recently in economies like, for example, Brazil, Nigeria and Turkey, all of which still have considerable long-term economic potential based on our analysis.
7. To realise this growth potential, emerging market governments need to implement structural reforms to improve macroeconomic stability, diversify their economies away from undue reliance on natural resources (where this is currently the case), and develop more effective political and legal institutions.

 

 

3 Charts that show stock market euphoria is Totally unprecedented

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” -John Templeton

Jesse felder writes….When looking at sentiment many people like to look at surveys. I prefer to look at what people are actually doing with their money. It’s a fact that we are now seeing record inflows into the global equity markets .

 

The flows into Indian equity and balanced funds also continue unabated although valuations are no more cheap.Real estate and bank deposits have the highest allocation in any Indian investor portfolio .Real estate has been loosing shine as real interest rates ( Nominal interest rates-inflation) is positive and bank have sharply reduced deposit rates post demonetisation as they are flushed with money in an enviroment where credit growth is weak.This is leading to some household savings getting channelised into equity markets through mutual funds.In the long term this will lead to counterbalance to more volatile FII flows and increased domestic ownership of Indian companies .

https://www.thefelderreport.com/2017/03/17/3-charts-that-show-stock-market-euphoria-is-totally-unprecedented/

what i read this week- Economic times

How Ridiculously high salaries at Indian Unicorns are ruining careers and job scene in IT

Indian unicorns may have severely messed up the compensation patterns for young technology workforce in India. In a country where the starting salary for an engineer hired by large IT companies could be as low as Rs. 300,000 per annum, unicorns were, till recently, doling out hard-to-match remunerations. Now, with funding and profitability hard to come by, these companies are laying off workers by the hundreds. And those laid off are finding it difficult to find new jobs because most prospective employers are puzzled by the salaries they have been earning.

“After receiving over 1,000 applications for jobs from Snapdeal or xSnapdeal employees, our experience is that aside from exceptions, 1) high-quality talent 2) overpaid by approximately 1.5-3x. No wonder why these start-ups are failing (sic),” Anjli Jain, managing partner at early-stage investment fund EVC Ventures, wrote in a LinkedIn post last week. Bengaluru-based social wellness platform Zoojoo.be, as a policy, avoids interviewing candidates from “a bunch of startups that we know overpay their employees,” said founder and CEO Avinash Saurabh, who often comes across resumes of engineers with just a year’s experience but “crazy expectations” of earning Rs15-20 lacs per year. “They are talented folks, I am sure, but they are not for us,” he said.

Read More

https://qz.com/928466/with-their-ridiculously-high-salaries-unicorns-may-have-ruined-the-job-scene-in-the-indian-tech-sector/

Domino’s doing best at what they know………Making pizza and delivering them hot

you may not be surprised to learn that pizza production at Domino’s hasn’t changed much in the 57 years since the company was founded. It’s still essentially hands on the dough and in the cheese. But whereas pizza making remains high-touch and traditional, pizza marketing is anything but. There, Domino’s Pizza Inc. has decided that modern works better than authentic and for the past five years, the company has been emphasizing all the ways you can order pizza with minimal human and maximal digital contact. It’s introduced more ordering methods—Facebook, Twitter, Twitter with emojis, Apple Watch, voice-activated, “zero click,” wedding registry—than new items on its menu. Customers can track their pizzas online, starting as they’re being made, and in San Diego (for now; likely nationwide soon) they can track their drivers. If an Australian want to pick up her order, a GPS system can monitor her approach so the pizza is hot on arrival. Domino’s has spent millions to trick out a fleet featuring “the ultimate pizza delivery vehicle”—the DXP, a Chevrolet Spark subcompact with special side doors and warming ovens. An independent franchisee in New Zealand is testing delivery by drone and robot. In 2015, for the first time, more than half of Domino’s orders were placed online, and half of those came via mobile. As the company has built up its tech cred, its financial fortunes have been rising. Since the end of 2008, when Domino’s was threatened by declining sales and distressed franchisees, its share price has increased 60-fold. The company is now worth $9 billion. They know what they are good at, which is making pizza and they are getting better at delivering that Pizza.

Read More

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2017-dominos-pizza-empire/

The finance world’s short-termism will destroy our communities, economies and the planet.

Central banks and governments haven’t controlled the volume of money in the economy for quite some time now. Instead, it has largely been dictated by private financial institutions. Today, in most developed economies, some 95% of the money in circulation is created by private financial institutions. This is not down to fraud, but thanks to the legitimate creation of wealth through investment and lending. It is a result of what is known as the multiplier effect. This is interesting, because it tells us something about both power and money. When financial institutions decide whether or not to invest or to lend, they literally make most of the money they are investing not as an individual institution, but as a consequence of our financial system. This gives them far more collective power over the economy – and therefore people’s lives – than if they were just lending money that already existed. But this oversized power has not been matched with equal measures of responsibility. Instead, financial institutions continue to react in a way that is short-term and this creates instability. When financial liquidity is most needed, the supply of money is halted – banks stop lending during recessions because investments are less likely to make short-term gains. When money supply needs to be restrained because the economy is heading towards a bubble, the prospect of short-term gains pushes financial institutions to pump money into the economy. If we take a longer view, we stop being scared of lending during a recession and in doing so we reduce the impact and duration of that same recession. If we work towards an economy that functions for everyone, it functions for us.

Read More

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/03/the-finance-world-s-short-termism-will-destroy-our-communities-economies-and-the-planet/

Chinese miracle is over now come hard times

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told the National People’s Congress that China’s GDP growth rate would drop from 7% in 2016 to 6.5% this year. In 2016, the country’s growth rate was the lowest it has been since 1990. The key part of Li’s statement signalled that the Chinese government has not been able to stop the decline in its economy. That means more economic pain is on the way. Put another way, there are hard times in China that will likely become worse. China’s dilemma, like Japan’s, is that it built much of its growth on exports. Both China and Japan were poor countries and demand for goods was low. They jump-started their economies by taking advantage of low wages and sold products to advanced economies. In 2008, China was hit by a double tsunami. First, the financial crisis plunged its customers into a recession that was followed by extended stagnation. Thus, demand for Chinese goods contracted. Second, China’s competitive advantage was cost, but it now has lower-cost competitors. China’s deepest fear was unemployment, and the country’s interior remained impoverished. If exports plunged and unemployment rose, the Chinese would face both a social and political threat, emanating from immense inequality. It would face an army of the unemployed on the coast. China must also determine how to manage international forces (particularly the United States), which are challenging China and its core interests. China is trying to convince the world that it remains what it was a decade ago. That strategy could work for a while, but many still view China through a lens that broke long ago. But reality is reality. China is no longer the top owner of US government debt; that honour goes to Japan. China’s rainy day funds are being used up, and that reveals its deepest truth. China carried out a great—and impressive—surge. But now, it is just another country struggling to figure out what its economy needs and what its politics permit.

Read More

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2017/03/14/chinas-miracle-is-over/#566a2acc5a9c

IceCap Asset Management- The Pendulum

IceCap Asset Management BELIEVE  “As we approach the last days of winter, we anticipate significant  market volatility heading into the US debt ceiling debate, and then the French/German elections.Political and Interest Rate Pendulums have started to swing away from a place where the majority of the world had grown very accustomed to experiencing.”
March 2017 The Pendulum
These swings will intensify away from most peoples’ comfort zone,reigniting the government debt crisis in Europe, which will in turn produce incredible opportunities to lose money in bond strategies and currencies, while also make money in stocks and USD.
Bonds
No changes to our long-term outlook for bonds. All of our portfolios hold minimum allocations to bonds, with no high yield, no emerging market debt, and no long duration.Current conditions make bonds the riskiest long-term investment.
Stocks
We have neither added nor sold any equity holdings since our last Global Outlook.Despite many negative news headlines about equity markets, our research indicates there is no major risk on the horizon.Stock market sentiment has reached extreme levels, and we’ll once again patiently await for an opportunity to add further to these strategies.

The only reason they are not adding to stocks is current Excessive optimism in stock markets and similar disdain for bond markets ( emphasis mine)
Currencies
Their long-term outlook remains the same – as the global crisis accelerates, they fully expect USD to surge.

http://icecapassetmanagement.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2017.3-IceCap-Global-Market-Outlook.pdf