IceCap Asset Management- The Pendulum

IceCap Asset Management BELIEVE  “As we approach the last days of winter, we anticipate significant  market volatility heading into the US debt ceiling debate, and then the French/German elections.Political and Interest Rate Pendulums have started to swing away from a place where the majority of the world had grown very accustomed to experiencing.”
March 2017 The Pendulum
These swings will intensify away from most peoples’ comfort zone,reigniting the government debt crisis in Europe, which will in turn produce incredible opportunities to lose money in bond strategies and currencies, while also make money in stocks and USD.
Bonds
No changes to our long-term outlook for bonds. All of our portfolios hold minimum allocations to bonds, with no high yield, no emerging market debt, and no long duration.Current conditions make bonds the riskiest long-term investment.
Stocks
We have neither added nor sold any equity holdings since our last Global Outlook.Despite many negative news headlines about equity markets, our research indicates there is no major risk on the horizon.Stock market sentiment has reached extreme levels, and we’ll once again patiently await for an opportunity to add further to these strategies.

The only reason they are not adding to stocks is current Excessive optimism in stock markets and similar disdain for bond markets ( emphasis mine)
Currencies
Their long-term outlook remains the same – as the global crisis accelerates, they fully expect USD to surge.

http://icecapassetmanagement.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2017.3-IceCap-Global-Market-Outlook.pdf

Doctor Google will see you now.

For many people nowadays, the first port of call upon discovering an unusual rash or feeling a worrying pain is not the doctor, but rather Google. Figures from Eurostat show the countries which are relying the most on medical information from the internet. In Luxembourg, almost three quarters of respondents said that they had turned to the web for health-related information – an increase of 44 percentage points on 2006. Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands are also among the top European countries turning to Google et al for advice.i

I tried looking at the data for india but couldnt find the relevant numbers although the numbers are on rise

Only 5% of the world’s population lives in the entire blue region. For comparison, the same number of people live in the small red region.

Believe it or not, it’s true. There are just as many people living in the small red area as there are living in all the blue areas combined.

Blue region

Red region

 

 

Global credit creation comes to a grinding halt

UBS calculates a global “credit impulse,” showing the extent to which there is a trend toward increasing use of debt. According to their calculations, since 2014, it is China that has been keeping the Global Credit Impulse up. If China is cutting back, and the US is cutting back as well, the situation starts looking like the 2008-2009 period, except starting from greater problems with diminishing returns

Chinese companies are aggresively develeraging. China credit creation=80% of world’s total and a warning to risky assets

Bank credit growth comes to a halt in US

I find it strange that even a relatively less leveraged country like India (as compared to china and US) is witnessing a collapse in credit demand ,where credit growth slumped to 60 years low.I understand why corporates are not borrowing but it is inexplicable why households are not borrowing especially when they are not leveraged

The economy to me is like a type of Ponzi Scheme. In absence of productivity it depends on both rising energy consumption and rising debt to sustain growth. A major function of growing debt is to add wages. Unwinding debt leads to the kinds of problems that we encountered in 2008. It is tempting for world financial leaders to think that they can find a solution to today’s problems by using higher target interest rates to slightly scale back economic growth. I don’t think that this is really a good option .Judging from the complete halt in credit creation and the softening energy prices I fail to understand what will FED achieve by raising the rates.

Penetration and demographics of top 7 social networks

In today’s multi-platform world, the smart businesses are tailoring their messages to audiences based on a variety of factors.Of course, there are the benefits and limitations to each platform to be considered – but even more importantly, the audience and activity on each platform can differ considerably. The demographics of Pinterest vary from those of YouTube or Facebook, and content creators need to think about these fundamental differences in order to maximize user engagement.

For example Facebook is predominently female users but youtube reaches more 18-49 then any other cable network in US.

Indians going back to cash , Retail Carnage ET- what i read

Are Indians going back to cash
Vivek kaul writes that currency with public has been going up post December 2016. Nevertheless, it is still some way away from the pre-demonetisation level. Whether that level is achieved remains to be seen. It depends on whether the government decides to replace the entire currency withdrawn through demonetisation or not. As far as ATM transactions using debit cards go, they have bounced back post demonetisation. In fact, the total number of transactions in January 2017 was more than that in January 2016. Having said that the total number of transactions in January 2017 was still lower than the pre-demonetisation level. The usage of credit cards and debit cards spiked up in the aftermath of demonetisation. But the value of goods bought using credit and debit cards through the point of sale route, fell by 8.4 per cent between December 2016 and January 2017, as more currency became available in the market. If we look at just debit cards, the fall is around 16 per cent. He also highlights that ATM withdrawals in rupee terms went up by around 79 per cent between December 2016 and January 2017. If ever there was a data point that showed that Indians preferred cash to carry out economic transactions, this is it.

Trump Adviser Peter Navarro: Trade Deficits Endanger U.S. National Security
This is getting interesting, a country which has always run trade deficits and stuffed a fiat currency named dollar to all exporters to US since Bretton woods now thinks trade deficit is bad. The director of President Donald Trump’s newly formed National Trade Council said Monday the administration would make the reduction of U.S. trade deficits its top policy focus. Speaking to a conference of business economists, trade adviser Peter Navarro said the U.S. faced a growing economic and potential national security risk from the commercial behaviour of its major trading partners, including China and Germany. “Suppose instead that it is not a benign ally buying up our companies, our technologies, our farmland and our food supply chain, and ultimately controlling much of our defense-industrial base. Rather it is a rapidly militarizing strategic rival intent on hegemony in Asia and perhaps world hegemony,” Mr. Navarro said. He warned the U.S. could lose a “broader cold war…not by shots being fired but by cash registers ringing. Here comes a trade war and the way UN has become toothless expect WTO also to disintegrate into boxing arena

Meet SEDRIC, a bizzare looking ride from volkswagen
The Volkswagen Group has taken us from the Beetle to the Golf and it soon might take us somewhere very, very boring with the new Sedric concept car.The pod-like high-tech vision of future mobility doesn’t even have a steering wheel, thanks to its Level 5 autonomous driving systems, and is the strongest statement yet from Volkswagen’s ‘Together Strategy 2025’ program. The Sedric is crammed full of the thinking Volkswagen believes it will need to transform itself from an engineering-driven car company today into an across-the-board integrated mobility services organization. Shown at a limited-access media presentation prior to the Geneva motor show, the Sedric is a development prototype of a different kind for the Volkswagen Group. Instead of engineering and building new hardware pieces and swapping them in, the idea of the Sedric is to allow all the brands in the Group to explore how their mobility concepts could work in the real world. Sedric brings in speech-controlled driving, with voice commands governing the car’s throttle systems. There are no pedals, nor steering wheel! Beneath the floor, the Sedric uses a lithium-ion battery pack with enough capacity to move the car for around 400km, Volkswagen claims. The Group’s plan is to begin launching driverless cars after 2020.

Death Knell for US retailers
In the US Brick-and-mortar retailers, many of them subject to leveraged buyouts during the LBO boom before the Financial Crisis and now burdened with way too much debt, are keeling over one after the other, in a dense wave of debt restructurings and bankruptcies. And creditors are getting skinned. The crash of brick-and-mortar retail is due to structural causes – including the shift to online retail. These issues will not go away. They will only get worse. Even profitable retailers, like Macy’s, are shuttering stores. They’re all doing it, profitable or in bankruptcy. Nine chain-store retailers that have filed or are considering filing for bankruptcy, or restructuring their debts, so far in 2017, six of them in the last seven days! These are just the largest ones. And the year is barely into its third month. Even Warren Buffett who believes in America’s future seems more doubtful about that of Walmart and other traditional retailers. The billionaire’s Berkshire Hathaway sold off about $900 million worth of Wal-Mart Stores stock in the last quarter, or about 90% of what he had left after years of paring his investment in the discount retailer. As recently as last summer, Buffett’s holdings in Walmart were worth $3 billion, and are now down to less than $100 million. The Oracle of Omaha first invested in the company in 2005.

Investment outlook by Bill Gross

Bill Gross writes ….. Don’t be allured by the Trump mirage of 3-4% growth and the magical benefits of tax cuts and deregulation. The U.S. and indeed the global economy is walking a fine line due to increasing leverage and the potential for too high (or too low) interest rates (i think he is talking only about debt and not equity) to wreak havoc on an increasingly stressed financial system. Be more concerned about the return of your money than the return on your money in 2017 and beyond.

When interest rates are on falling trajectory then it is not difficult for higher amount of debt to be serviced and even more debt to be raised from market because whoever has bought debt ( bonds) see the value of bonds going up hence willing to fund more debt as capital appreciation is gauranteed. it is only when interest rates starts rising ( i still believe only shorter end rates will rise) then the fun starts if all those debt which has been created is not used for creating earning asset and used only for consumption or buybacks (emphasis Mine).

In the U.S., credit of $65 trillion is roughly 350% of annual GDP and the ratio is rising. In China, the ratio has more than doubled in the past decade to nearly 300%.

For reference ,in India our total debt ( private + govt) is 150% of GDP mainly because inflation in India has reduced the value of debt and inflation means increased burden of tax on you and me . And unlike both china and US our growth rates are higher.

 

Crude oil falls ….. one more pillar of reflation trade comes under pressure

One market jolted out of complacency yesterday was crude oil where the price broke out of a range and fell 5%

But the speculators are running all time high long positions. Every trader believes that OPEC cuts are for real and Saudi Arabia will not allow oil prices to fall before Saudi Aramco listing  http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-ipo-value-idUSKBN16D14Y after all ,if Saudi Aramco is valued at closer to USD 1.5 trillion then it is in the interest of Saudi Arabia to keep oil prices high till Aramco IPO …….. Hmm sounds logical

it seems Americans are not cooperating as US rig count and crude oil output continue to recover

and at the same time, US shale production is becoming more efficient with breakeven firmly below 40

oh yes  US crude oil stockpiles … hitting another post-WW-II record

Crude is knows as king of commodities because of its size and importance in global economy.The break down in price is a sign that REFLATION trade might be at the risk of reversal.

 

The 100 Websites That Rule the Internet

There are over 1.1 billion websites on the internet, but the vast majority of all traffic actually goes to a very select list of them. Google.com, for example, has an astounding 28 billion visits per month. The next closest is also a Google-owned property, Youtube.com, which brings in 20.5 billion visits.

Today’s infographic lists the 100 highest ranking websites in the U.S. by traffic, according to website analytics company Alexa ( an Amazon company)

The information is grouped by company – for example, you can see that Google controls four sites in the Top 100 (Google, Youtube, Blogger, and Google User Content), while Verizon owns the Huffington Post and AOL.com (they will also control Yahoo and Tumblr when that deal closes in Q2). The data is also sorted by industry, so sites in a similar category are grouped in the same color.

A STEEP DROPOFF

The dropoff from #1 to #100 is significant. Google.com has 28 billion visits, but a website like Citi.com (ranked #98) only has 53 million visits a month. That’s a 500x difference!

The whole distribution is quite fascinating, and it is clear that the spoils go overwhelmingly to the very top of the food chain. However, that also means that there is an entire world of millions of websites out there that almost no one (except Google’s crawler) has ever seen.

Coho Capital Partners newsletter

Over the last five years, Coho Capital has increased at 20.2% per year compared to 14.7% for the S&P 500. They utilize the S&P 500 Index as a comparison because it is the most difficult index to beat over time.Given their global mandate to seek value, they utilize the MSCI ACWI Index as another way to assess performance. Relative to the MSCI, Coho Capital has returned an extra 10.6% per year, resulting in aggregate outperformance of 92.5% over the past five years.

This newsletter is on Why they own Alibaba, Facebook , Google ( Alphabet), visa and S&P Global (rating business).

There is a treasure of information on these companies in this newsletter  CohoCapital2016AnnualLetter