We know a few things about oil in the coming years:
1) Investment is down significantly
2) We are finding less oil than we have in 75 years
3) Shale loses money
4) Shale depends on investors willing to fund the losses
5) Shale depends on low interest rates
6) About half of US production is shale & the US is the world’s largest producer
7) We need more oil just to meet growing demand and old wells dying