In the past two months, the more traditional indicators of conventional market analysis have confirmed what complexity indicators (‘EWS’) had indicated all along: (i) multi-year breakdowns in trend-lines for major equities, bond and real estate markets; (ii) sharp tightening in financial conditions and inverted US rate curves; (iii) sudden gaps in equity multiples, typical during recessions; (iv) high yield bonds and leveraged loans breaking down, together with frozen capital markets; (v) weakening economic activity indicators from China to Europe to now the US; (vi) together with Apple and Samsung opening the season of supposedly-shocking profit warnings with fanfare.
Early Tremors, Not Market Bottoms
