Political risks remain high in 2019 as critical elections could lead to policy turns or surprise outcomes: In EM, India, South Africa and Argentina are elections w/ highest stakes this year. In DM, Europe will be closely watched. Standard Chartered runs electoral heatmap 2019.
Interesting chart from TD Securities
Corp earnings were grossed up artificially by a doubling of US gov’t spending and debt, far above what US consumers had to use. The debt spiral we’re in now makes statistics
The NY Fed recently updated its recession-risk model – up to 21.4% in December, from 15.8% in November and 14.1% in October. The odds have doubled in the past year and haven’t been this high since August 2008.
Relative sizes of global asset classes….gold is currently at roughly 7 trillion
