Today is the ECM day and I am a student of cycle. Marin Armstrong, in my view is the foremost authority on cycles.
Martin writes in his blog..
The Economic Confidence Model has marked specific highs and lows in markets to the very day at times depending upon the shifts in capital flows. Why has the business cycle been masked in complexity that has prevented many from comprehending how it functions? I believe this is the result of the average person always attempts to reduce everything to a single cause and effect. What they fail to grasp is the level of complexity involved which incorporates weather, war, innovation, population changes, the migration of people and economies over the face of the earth.