I think it is way to early to take a call based on fundamentals but if you get some help from capital flows and technical analysis you get more inputs for decision making.
Today I had a discussion on state of markets with Neppolian of Jade Finance and Management Advisors LLP
Summary
I feel now Corona and Crude will no more act as fear factors or reasons for any ensuing fall . Corona and Crude oil are HISTORY. We should not focus on them anymore.
Could there be any other lurking Blackswan ….possible and we can remain open about them.
Technically markets are at levels both price wise and time wise (faster retracement in half the time of fall). They should start weakening from coming week ideally. We can remain with bear case till then.
However if they don’t start falling from coming week, then we should be prepared for more melt up in markets. We must slacken our bear case. On a non technical basis, am very very clear that all the money printing that has happened across the globe (excluding India) is inflationary by nature….and equities should do good in an inflationary environment along with gold.
I feel markets can now only come down purely based on technical reasons or if the world has under printed to not fully cover the economic impact.
My view is if the world is moving towards either inflation or reflation then the most money will be made in cyclicals like metals, industrials etc.
I also feel industry facing banks should do better than retail customers facing banks
Chemical and Fertilizer stocks should do better than FMCG
Disclaimer: This is not an investment advice. Please do your own do diligence by “Watching CNBC” before you take any investment decisions