This report by PWC outlines the shift in global gdp from G-7 to E-7. Lot of data and charts
Key findings
1. We project that the world economy could more than double in size by 2050, assuming broadly growthfriendly policies (including no sustained long-term retreat into protectionism) and no major global civilisation-threatening catastrophes.
2. Emerging markets will continue to be the growth engine of the global economy. By 2050, the E7 economies could have increased their share of world GDP from around 35% to almost 50%. China could be the largest economy in the world, accounting for around 20% of world GDP in 2050, with India in second place and Indonesia in fourth place (based on GDP at PPPs).
3. A number of other emerging markets will also take centre stage – Mexico could be larger than the UK and Germany by 2050 in PPP terms and six of the seven largest economies in the world could be emerging markets by that time.
4. Meanwhile, the EU27 share of world GDP could be down to less than 10% by 2050, smaller than India.
5. We project Vietnam, India and Bangladesh to be three of the world’s fastest growing economies over this period. UK growth has the potential to outpace the average rate in the EU27 after the transitional impact of Brexit has passed, although we project the fastest growing large EU economy to be Poland.
6. Today’s advanced economies will continue to have higher average incomes, but emerging economies should make good progress towards closing this gap by 2050. This will open up great opportunities for businesses prepared to make long-term investments in these markets. But this will require patience to ride out the storms we have seen recently in economies like, for example, Brazil, Nigeria and Turkey, all of which still have considerable long-term economic potential based on our analysis.
7. To realise this growth potential, emerging market governments need to implement structural reforms to improve macroeconomic stability, diversify their economies away from undue reliance on natural resources (where this is currently the case), and develop more effective political and legal institutions.