SUMMARY:
- Economic recession = not likely, even six months out
- Risk level = extremely high
- Bear market = quite possible and might, in fact, be starting now (remember that all Primary Trends, both directions, zig-zag)
- Potential bull gains = 10%?
- Possible total bear losses in unprotected accounts = up to 50%?
- Risk is now to the downside.
- Last month’s brief flirtation with renewed inflation has evaporated. In the last blog I wrote that this could happen; we are now solidly back into the deflation camp (this is not good)
- Technical analysis now more solidly confirms fundamental analysis.
- If the current bearish ‘megaphone’ chart pattern plays out, it could, worst case, take the market (but not us) down as much as 50% before bottoming.
- Some well-known investment advice experts have been bearish since birth, so like a stopped clock, they might be proved correct once more and they would use any bear market to promote their services.
- MarketCycle Wealth Management has been bullish since April 2, 2009, two weeks off of the major “Financial Crash” bottom (after having been bearish all through 2008 and early 2009)… and we are just now turning, sort of, bearish again.
- Knowledgeable and experienced investment account guidance pays for itself; it sometimes takes a long time and repeated losses for investors to realize that. https://www.marketcyclewealthmanagement.com/marketcycles-musings/