Summary
In the next downturn, default rates will increase to very high levels and defaults to very high dollar amounts.
There is also now clearly high correlation between high-yield bond returns and the stock market, with the correlation rising well above 70% since 2008-2009.
All indications are that the benign credit cycle will continue through 2019 and possibly beyond.
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4284691-edward-altman-credit-cycle