Fintech coming to trounce Indian Banks

Andy Mukherjee writes  ………In the match for India’s financial services future, fintech just scored twice while banks are still struggling to retrieve the ball they scuffed into their own net. It’s just the start of what looks like a bruising battle for traditional lenders.India’s banks, which still dominate the country’s financial landscape, appear to have hardly a kick left in them. Stressed assets without any loan-loss cover now exceed $96 billion, McKinsey & Co. said last week. An overwhelming 91 percent, or $87 billion, of the provisioning gap is at state-run lenders, whose net worth would be wiped out if they took the hit on their capital.Even as McKinsey was delivering this sobering reality check, fintech was running a victory lap of sorts. Paytm, a digital payments company, announced a $1.4 billion investment by Masayoshi Son’s SoftBank Group Corp. on Thursday, the largest funding round by a single investor in an Indian startup .

This is my view will create a double whammy for the banking system which has to not only continue cleaning up its bad debt but also face a Fintech threat backed by an enormous pool of Capital  http://worldoutofwhack.com/2017/05/21/bricks-and-mortar-style-of-banking-is-in-an-existential-dilemma/

Bricks-and-Mortar style of Banking is in an existential Dilemma

SNAPSHOT
The payments bank and digital banking push in India may soon lead the bricks-and-mortar style of banking to an existential dilemma

R Jagannathan writes ……The nature of the banking game is changing in that lending and borrowing are fast becoming plain-vanilla activities loaded with risk and where margins may thin down as more players enter the picture. The real booty will come from using your customer database to cross-sell financial and other products for a fee, unencumbered by asset-quality worries.

Indian banking is currently overloaded with overheads – excess staff, costly branches, ATMs, and physical credit cards – when the digital world is making it possible to become a bank without any of these “assets” that could fast turn liabilities.

Masayoshi Son of Softbank is investing big in Paytm – with China’s Alibaba being the other big investor – precisely because he knows financial services are no longer about bricks and mortar, but bits and bytes.

Public sector banks are fast becoming a liability in this world of virtual bank

Bitcoin crosses $1900 … Proves the greater fool theory is alive and doin’ fine

I have written about cryptocurrencies twice but the price led by BITCOIN keeps on going up. Wealthy Chinese have been trying to take their capital out of china but chinese govt has clamp down hard ON CAPITAL OUTFLOWS and I think all other uses for Bitcoin currently pales in comparison to its use as a conduit for Chinese moving wealth out of their country. As little as a year ago, this was not the case. But right now, it’s pretty much a China thing.As Bitcoin has gone up, the Chinese have figured they can hold on to them once they get them, rather than converting them to western currency. So each new Chinese wanting to move wealth abroad, has to pay a higher and higher price for each Bitcoin. So in that sense, it kind of is a greater fool’s game.

Eventually, the chinese thinking is that with enough wealth held in Bitcoin, those holding them will be able to buy goods and services with them directly. Then Bitcoin will no longer be as volatile, and will no longer be any more of a fools game than other large currencies. Minus the debasement looting.

Now comes the real Fun. Mish shedlock did an online poll and asked people how high do they think Bitcoin will go and there it you have the answer below.

The greater fool theory is alive and doin’ fine….. it will till it can and when it reverses the fall can be dramatic. Think of any financial instrument as a pendulam , the higher the Pendulum goes in one direction the bigger the movement on other side . we have an live example of this BRAZIL ETF http://worldoutofwhack.com/2017/05/18/etf-tracking-brazil-market-down-50-in-todays-trading/ which fell 50% in few seconds of market opening this week.

 

Economic Times – Capital controls and transfer of wealth from Private Sector to Public Sector

Capital controls and transfer of wealth from Private sector to Public

While the policy of building walls to keep people from entering a country has become more prevalent, what is rarely discussed in the mainstream financial media is the prospect of another type of wall: a financial wall, prohibiting savers and investors from transferring, repatriating, or even using their capital. Capital controls are now reappearing as a “macroprudential” tool, aimed at addressing global crises. Financial repression is a term coined by the Stanford economists Edward Shaw and Ronald McKinnon, and relates to policies under which the government transfers wealth from the private to the public sector, by generating cheap funding for the government. The mechanism is fairly straightforward: Artificially low nominal interest rates, accompanied by a mild dose of inflation, will erode the real value of government debt. The main policies to achieve this are capital account restrictions and foreign exchange controls to create an internal “captive” market for domestic debt, caps or ceilings on interest rates and/or direct ownership / heavy regulation on the banking system. Given the rise of inward-looking and panicked politicians around the globe and the monetary policy extremes after the 2008 crisis, a financial repression via blanket capital control regime could be the policy response to the next crisis. In this process, the global financial system would be totally fragmented, while wealth would be transferred from the private sector to the government

Read More

http://www.ekathimerini.com/218434/opinion/ekathimerini/comment/capital-controls–the-new-qe

The new Private Terminal where Rich are pampered and normal people suffer

( reminds me of The hunger Games movie)

There is an iPad that sat on a counter at the entrance, with a typed little note: “Here is a glimpse of what you’re missing over at the main terminal right now.” The screen linked to videos of travellers looking harassed and being swallowed into pushing, shoving paparazzi scrums – routine hazards for the 80 million people who pass through LAX each year. “There they process thousands of people at a time, they’re barking. It’s loud. Here it’s very, very lovely,” said Gavin de Becker, who runs the new terminal, called Private Suite. Welcome to Los Angeles international airport’s (LAX) new private terminal for the mega-rich: the plush, hushed privacy, the beds with comforters, the massages, the coriander-scented soap, the Willy Wonka-style array of chocolates and jelly beans, and the Napa Valley cabernet. The $22m facility, the first of its kind in the US, opens on Monday, giving the 1% a whole new way to separate themselves from everyone else’s reality. Instead of battling the traffic jams that clog LAX you reach Private Suite via the Imperial Highway, leading to a discreet turn-off where an armed guard checks your identity and pushes a button. Tall grey gates open and you enter the haven. It is pricey. In addition to annual membership of $7,500, you pay $2,700 per domestic flight and $3,000 per international flight. The cost covers a group of up to four people

Read More

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/12/lax-private-terminal-rich-people-celebrities?CMP=share_btn_link

How college has become a racket

The cost of college education in western countries especially US has exploded in last few. College tuition and expenses has risen at a financially devastating rate for students and their financially trapped families and these kids who have joined working population after completing getting their precious college degrees collectively owns USD 1.4 trillion of student debt .  What few however can answer satisfactorily is: Why has this occurred? Most students takes loans for college education which is guaranteed by their parents but there was a steep increase in this debt inducing juggernaut from 2010-11. What happened in the early part of this post financial crisis decade? Certainly, more students didn’t suddenly start wanting to go to college? College operating costs on the other hand didn’t abruptly get more expensive? What happened was The US Government accepted the full risk of student loans and financially Guaranteed Student Loans to the bankers. The banking lobbyist pulled off the biggest heist in history by having student loans made fully Non-Recourse loans, not dis-chargeable in bankruptcy court. To the ‘money lenders’ this was a dream opportunity!   An opportunity for “risk free” lending that needed to be fully capitalized on before the magnitude of the mistake was fully appreciated and consumer protection laws changed.

Read More

https://matasii.com/how-college-has-become-a-racket-2/

The end of oil in 10 years

We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles travelled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transport-as-a-service” (TaaS). The TaaS disruption will have enormous implications across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portions of their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, and destroying trillions of dollars in investor value — but also creating trillions of dollars in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth. High vehicle utilization (each car will be used at least 10 times more than individually owned cars) will mean that far fewer cars will be needed in the  vehicle fleet, and therefore there will be no supply constraint to the speed and extent of TaaS adoption that we forecast.
Taken together, this analysis forecasts a very fast and extensive disruption: TaaS will provide 95% of the passenger miles travelled within 10 years of the widespread regulatory approval of AVs. By 2030, individually owned ICE vehicles will still represent 40% of the vehicles in the U.S. vehicle fleet, but they will provide just 5% of passenger miles.

Read More

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/end-of-oil-in-10-years-and-how-they-dont-let-you-use-your-money/articleshow/58761683.cms

Google online empire and the new Google lens

The Numbers Behind Google’s Online Empire

CEO Sundar Pichai yesterday revealed that more than two million Android devices are actively used around the world and that six of Google’s services have reached over 1 billion users.

The numbers, summed up in the chart below, along with recent product/service introductions (e.g. Google Home or Google Lens)  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igTtOA1jcik illustrate the company’s ongoing efforts to move beyond search. As web usage continues to shift away from PCs and mobile browsers to apps and even voice-activated devices, people may not rely on Google search as much as they used to going forward. Considering that search advertising is still the company’s main source of revenue, it would be careless for Google not to cover all bases.

Rethinking Transportation by Tony Seba

A fantastic presentation  on

“The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the Internal-Combustion Vehicle and Oil Industries”

by Tony Seba

Executive Summary
We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transportas-a-service” (TaaS). The TaaS disruption will have enormous implications across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portions of their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, and destroying trillions of dollars in investor value — but also creating trillions of dollars in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth.

Summary of findings:
1. The approval of autonomous vehicles will unleash a highly competitive market-share grab among existing and new Pre-TaaS (ride-hailing) companies in expectation of the outsized rewards of trillions of dollars of market opportunities and network effects. Pre-TaaS platform providers like Uber, Lyft and Didi are already engaged, and others will join this high-speed race. Winners-take-all dynamics will force them to make large upfront investments to provide the highest possible level of service, ensuring supply matches demand in each geographic market they enter.
2. In this intensely competitive environment, businesses will offer services at a price trending toward cost. As a result, their fleets will quickly transition from human-driven, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to autonomous electric vehicles (A-EV) because of key cost factors, including ten times higher vehicle-utilization rates, 500,000-mile vehicle lifetimes (potentially improving to 1 million miles by 2030), and far lower maintenance, energy, finance and insurance costs. ê As a result, transport-as-a-service (TaaS) will offer vastly lower-cost transport alternatives — four to ten times cheaper per mile than buying a new car and two to four times cheaper than operating an existing vehicle in 2021.
3.Other revenue sources from advertising, data monetization, entertainment and product sales will open a road to free transport in a TaaS Pool model, as private and public transportation begin to merge.
4. Cost saving will also be the key factor in driving consumers to adopt TaaS.
5. Adoption will start in cities and radiate outward to rural areas. Nonadopters will be largely restricted to the most rural areas, where cost and wait times are likely to be higher.
6. High vehicle utilization (each car will be used at least 10 times more than individually owned cars) will mean that far fewer cars will be needed in the U.S. vehicle fleet, and therefore there will be no supply constraint to the speed and extent of TaaS adoption that we forecast.
Taken together, this analysis forecasts a very fast and extensive disruption: TaaS will provide 95% of the passenger miles traveled within 10 years of the widespread regulatory approval of AVs. By 2030, individually owned ICE vehicles will still represent 40% of the vehicles in the U.S. vehicle fleet, but they will provide just 5% of passenger miles.

Read More

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/585c3439be65942f022bbf9b/t/591a2e4be6f2e1c13df930c5/1494888038959/RethinkX+Report_051517.pdf

ETF tracking BRAZIL market down 50% in today’s trading

Brazil stocks plunge 10% on emerging political scandal. The Brazilian Bovespa fell more than 10 percent in opening trade.
Brazilian newspaper O Globo reported late Wednesday that Brazilian President Michel Temer gave his blessing to an attempt to pay a potential witness to remain silent in the country’s biggest-ever graft probe.

Below is the screenshot of  an ETF which tracks BRAZIL market. This ETF is levered 3X to BRAZIL markets so it moves 3 times the movement of bovespa .

This ETF is down 50% as I write, wiping out more than a years gain in few seconds of market opening.

This is what happens when everybody rushes for exits at the same time

 

Collector car…..an asset class in itself bites the Dust

Wolf Richter writes …..The global asset class of collector cars – these beautiful machines are perhaps one of the most enjoyable asset classes to play in – is quietly but persistently and very unenjoyably experiencing a downturn that parallels and in some aspects already exceeds the one during the Financial Crisis.

The index for collector car prices in the May report by Hagerty, which specializes in insuring vintage automobiles, fell 0.68 points to 160.06, down nearly 10% year-over-year, and down 14%, or 25.8 points, from its all-time high in September 2015 (185.86).

 

The index is now at the lowest level since June 2014. “With the latest release of values in the Hagerty Price Guide, prices have started to normalize,” the Hagerty report commented.

This is how an asset bubble during these crazy times of easy money around the globe, central bank “wealth effect,” and endless liquidity gets unwound.

Read More

http://wolfstreet.com/2017/05/17/classic-collector-car-prices-fall-how-asset-bubbles-unwind/

 

The H1 b visa scam …… by Defiant Thinking

How the narrative changes from …. Indians taking up our (american) jobs to Indians resorting to H1 b scams to Indians just dont have skills ….

The H1b scam

The federal H1b program is intended to allow foreign workers into the US to do high-skill jobs for which employers can’t find qualified domestic workers. In reality, it’s a way for US employers to lower their labor costs, ignoring the large pool of fully qualified (but more expensive) US workers in favor of cheap foreign labor.

This isn’t a small program, either; in 2014 there were 124,326 new applications approved and 191,531 renewed. Since this is a three-year program with one possible renewal, the total number of H1b foreign workers in the US is triple that, or close to a million lower-wage workers in positions that should otherwise go to US workers at much higher wages.

Where are those workers coming from? According to a recent report to Congress, in 2012 most – 64% – come from India, with no other country sending anywhere close to that many (China came closest at 7.6%).

Given that so many come from India, and that they’re coming under the pretense that they are significantly more qualified than their American counterparts, you may be stunned to learn just how poor the Indian training system when it comes to computer programming.

According to a 2017 skills assessment of graduating Indian software engineers conducted by Aspiring Minds, an Indian skills assessment company:

  • Out of the 2 problems given per candidate, only 14% engineers are able to write compilable codes for both and only 22% write compilable code for exactly one problem.
  • Only 14.67% of engineers are employable for IT Services company, while a worryingly low percentage of 2.47% are observed to be employable in IT Product company.
  • Amazingly, just 2.21% of candidates are able to write functionally and logically correct code.

This is the labor pool from which we’re pulling the majority of overseas workers, who our US staff supposedly cannot compete with.

If you want to learn more about how we’re being played by the H1b program, see this recent 60 Minutes story, or spend some time on the Protect US Workers site. It’s an outrage, and it needs to be stopped.

Ethereum is up 10000% in last 16 months

ETHEREUM…. I bet you havent heard about it ? it is the second biggest crypto currency behind Bitcoin ( now famous for wannacry hackers demand) with a market cap of USD 8.4 billion.

At the end of 2015, it was worth $0.90., it’s now worth $91.30. Those who bought it at the end of 2015 had a ten-bagger on their hands by January 16, 2017. I had written an article highlighting the move in cryptocurrency on 26th jan 2017 http://worldoutofwhack.com/?s=cryptocurrency . Those who bought at that time also have ten bagger on their hands. Those that rode it all the way up over the 16 months have a 100-bagger. For percentage fans, that’s a gain of 10,000%.

What miracle “asset” did they get when they bought it? Don’t even ask. Just believe in it. It certainly isn’t a usable currency for legit purposes, obviously, given this kind of insane instability. But it really doesn’t matter what it is as long as it is going up.

The largest one is bitcoin with a “market cap” of nearly $30 billion. I have been personally watching it from $400 wanting to buy it but was not sure about its legitimacy in India hence gave it a pass. The value of a single bitcoin, at $1,789 on Sunday, is 46% higher than the value of one troy ounce of gold ( as it is a much smaller market easy to manipulate ). In mid-May 2015, bitcoin was at $240. Over the two years since, it has soared 645%

This is being played with real money. That it will inflict maximum pain on the latecomers – whenever this happens – is now perfectly clear.

There are over 830 “alt-coins,” as the alternatives to bitcoin are called, out there, with new ones being added constantly. The “market cap” of all these cryptocurrencies combined, according to the Financial Times, has pierced the $50 billion mark. So this starting to involve serious money.

Many of these investors may not be “sophisticated.” But others appear to be highly sophisticated, now that the sums involved have gotten big enough for them. The FT:

Observers say many individuals are trading alt-coins from corporate IT departments, concentrated in the financial sector and falling under the radar of senior executives. Many are sitting on virtual fortunes, but are unable to liquidate their cash as banks clamp down on measures to avoid money laundering.

“Systems are being used here by employees to increase their own individual wealth. In the process, corporate systems are coming into contact with the fringes of the criminal world,” Brian Lord, former deputy director for intelligence and cyber operations at the UK’s electronic espionage agency GCHQ and now head of cyber practice at security group PGI, told the FT.

Big sophisticated traders – including hedge funds and others – are in this trade, not because it might make some real economic sense, but because, as the charts above show, these things can be pushed up quickly with enough money involved. And if enough new people can be drawn in due to the ballooning hype, then the big boys can get out, once they figure out how to deal with the banks’ concerns about money laundering.